RAP Achievements

L. Surface Transportation Weather

[Background] [MDSS]
[Missouri DOT] [Aurora Program]
[Road and bridge frost] [Rail car blow-over]
[Surface transportation weather outreach]

1. Background

The NCAR/RAP involvement in surface transportation weather began in 1999 when the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM) cosponsored several symposia on Weather Information for Surface Transportation (WIST). Utilizing information and stakeholder feedback obtained from these outreach activities, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Road Weather Management Program began several road weather projects to improve road weather decision support systems for highway operations. NCAR/RAP and other national laboratories were invited to brief State Departments of Transportation on advanced weather technologies that could be reapplied to road weather.

The first major FHWA road weather program, which began in 2000, was the development of the winter road Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS), a project led by Bill Mahoney. The awareness raised by the MDSS program led to several other road weather activities including RAP’s involvement on a National Research Council (NRC) study. In 2003, the FHWA commissioned the NRC Board on Atmospheric Science and Climate (BASC) to prepare a national research agenda for improving road weather services. As a Committee member, Rich Wagoner played a prominent role in defining the national research agenda. The Report titled, “Where the Weather Meets the Road” was released in January 2004.

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) sponsored a Weather and Highways Policy Forum in Washington, D.C. in November 2003. B. Mahoney was heavily involved in the Forum and was the lead author on the Policy Forum White Paper titled, “Improving the Safety, Capacity and Efficiency of the Highway System by Improving the Use of Weather Information”. The Policy Forum Report was published in early 2004.

The surface transportation program at RAP continued to expand in 2004 as several projects got underway to develop decision support systems for traffic, incident and emergency management, and highway maintenance. Sponsors include several State DOTs (Iowa, Minnesota, and Missouri), the FHWA, road operation agencies (E-470 Authority), and the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA).

2. Winter Road Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS)

Research and development continued this year on the FHWA-sponsored MDSS Project. The MDSS is designed to provide guidance on winter maintenance decisions (treatment times, types, rates, and locations) specific to winter road maintenance routes. Four national research centers participated in the development of the prototype MDSS in 2004. The participating national labs included the Army’s Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL), Massachusetts Institute of Technology - Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL), and NCAR. The Iowa State University’s Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) also provided project support this year. NCAR’s Research Applications Program (RAP) continued to be the lead lab for technical development and program coordination. Bill Myers and Ben Bernstein are the project lead engineer and scientist, respectively.

The MDSS integrates data from several National Weather Service (NWS) operational models (e.g., GFS and Eta) and specially-run mesoscale models (e.g., WRF, and MM5), and NWS and State DOT surface observations to produce weather forecasts at a number of forecast points along roadways. The weather forecasts at each forecast location serve as input to a land-surface model (SNTHERM) that predicts the road surface and subsurface temperature profiles and the snow depth at each forecast lead-time. These forecast road conditions are used to generate treatment plans at each site based on rules of practice logic for roadway anti- and de-icing. The MDSS provides a graphical user interface designed for easy interpretation by road maintenance managers. This display is also designed to allow the maintenance manager to generate “what-if” scenarios by setting up customized treatment plans and seeing the resulting road conditions.

The focus in 2004 was on a second field demonstration of the MDSS for state highway routes in Iowa. The system was operated from December 2003 through March 2004 providing winter maintenance treatment recommendations to Iowa DOT garage supervisors and operators. This MDSS field demonstration provided an opportunity to evaluate several aspects of the prototype and to make system enhancements to the Road Condition and Treatment Module (RCTM), the Road Weather Forecast System (RWFS), the mesoscale model ensemble, and the client display application.

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The RCTM module modifications focused on the preparation of better road treatment recommendations. The RWFS updates were centered on improved handling of the quantitative precipitation forecast data, increasing the temporal resolution of the output, and better quality control and use of observations in the preparation of weather forecasts. The mesoscale model ensemble configuration was changed to use a better selection of models with a higher temporal resolution in an attempt to improve the detection of weak weather events. And finally, several refinements were made to the display application based on Iowa DOT feedback.

Figure L-2. Sample image of the MDSS treatment selector page for a snow plow route on I-35 north or Des Moines, Iowa.

Some of the major lessons learned or confirmed from the second field demonstration were:

The data fusion techniques used in the RWFS improved the forecasts
The use of insolation data directly from the mesoscale models improved the road temperature predictions
The use of “hot start” mesoscale models, where clouds and precipitation data are incorporated and physically balanced at the initial time, improved the 0-6 hour precipitation forecasts
Probabilistic products were well received by the end-users, and
The expansion of the rules of practice logic to include winter storm event characterization greatly improved the stability and accuracy of the treatment recommendations.

The users continued to express a desire for blowing and drifting snow and road and bridge frost products.

The technology transfer component of the MDSS program included the successful release of the MDSS Version 2.0 software to the road weather community. The largest MDSS Stakeholder Group meeting was held at NCAR in July 2004. Seventy five participants, representing State DOTs, commercial weather providers, universities, national labs, and the U.S. DOT, learned about the status of MDSS development and the results of the field demonstrations. Approximately 23 states and 23 private sector companies make up the MDSS stakeholder group. A Technology Transfer Workshop was held at NCAR immediately following the Stakeholder meeting to facilitate the transfer of MDSS technologies into operations.

State DOT operators and supervisors remain extremely interested in the MDSS capabilities and have expressed a strong interest in continuing their support of the research and development effort. The MDSS test bed has been moved to Colorado for the 2004-2005 winter season. The MDSS will be configured to support Colorado DOT and the E-470 Public Road Authority. Research will focus on issues related to predicting road conditions in complex terrain.

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3. Missouri DOT - weather response system

In July 2004, the FHWA and Missouri DOT (MoDOT) announced a new two-year project to develop a Weather Response System (WRS) for traffic, incident, and emergency management, and highway maintenance. The system will be implemented at the Missouri DOT Statewide Transportation Management Center in Jefferson City, Missouri.

The prime contractor is Mixon-Hill, a civil engineering firm from Kansas City. NCAR/RAP will provide weather expertise and software engineering skills, and will support the design, development, and implementation of the system. The WRS will be designed to address the impacts of weather on the surface transportation system in Missouri. The WRS will:

Utilize cutting edge weather data from the meteorological community
Utilize a variety of sources of weather data and traditional and non-traditional observations
Enhance the FHWA MDSS to support additional weather events and other conditions by performing research through a partnership and cost-sharing approach between MoDOT and FHWA
Support the operational control, treatment, and advisory decisions of maintenance supervisors and traffic managers in MoDOT, as well as the needs of public transportation agencies, local highway agencies, the Missouri Highway Patrol, and local law enforcement and emergency response agencies

Figure L-3. Conceptual architecture of the Missouri DOT Weather Response System (WRS). © Mixon/Hill, Inc.

In 2004, B. Mahoney and Jim Cowie supported the development of the proposal, participated in user requirements data gathering activities, and the development of the operational concept and preliminary system design. Software development will commence in November 2004.

4. Aurora Program – tactical snow fighting decision support

A major deficiency in roadway snow and ice control is accurate and timely information on precipitation type, rate, and snowfall accumulation. In 2004, the Aurora Program Board, which is an international partnership of public agencies who work together to perform joint research activities in the area of road weather information systems (RWIS), awarded a small contract to NCAR/RAP to develop and demonstrate a tactical decision support system for snow and ice control. The system will utilize technologies developed for the Weather Support for De-icing Decision Making (WSDDM) system, which was developed by RAP to support aircraft de-icing operations.

The roadway version of the system will incorporate data from WSR88D radars, NWS surface observations, advanced snow gauges, and road weather information systems (RWIS). There are two primary goals for this project. The first goal is to test the utility of a new real-time snow gauge for use in winter road maintenance. The second goal is to test the utility of the WSDDM de-icing/anti-icing nowcast system for winter road maintenance operations. It is anticipated that knowledge of the real-time snowfall rate and liquid equivalent amount should aid tactical snow fighting operations. The system will also be designed to calculate chemical dilution rates for plow routes based on the estimated liquid equivalent precipitation rate. The demonstration will be held during the winter of 2004-2005 for selected DOT maintenance facilities in Iowa and Minnesota. The lead engineer on the project is Frank Hage.

5. Road and bridge frost prediction

As an extension of the research performed while working with CRREL on the MDSS program, NCAR has been tasked with developing a road and bridge frost prediction system for Peak Weather Resources and FHWA. The work will be an extension of road frost research performed at Iowa State University. The work involves predicting road and bridge temperatures and frost deposition on the pavement. The product will be initially tested for specific sites in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa during the fall and winter of 2004-2005.

6. Rail car blow-over prediction and mitigation

In 2001, NCAR/RAP hosted a Symposium on Enhanced Weather Information for Improved Railroad Safety and Productivity sponsored by the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), Association of American Railroads, and NCAR. The symposium led to a decision to investigate weather related hazards to railroad operations. In July 2003, Rich Wagoner arranged a visit to Union Pacific (UP) Railroad Headquarters in Omaha, Nebraska. A group of NCAR, FRA, and Meteorlogix staff visited the dispatch center and gathered information about weather-related accidents. Major weather hazards include railcar blow-over, track washout, track buckling, and track pull-aparts. The FRA funded NCAR to develop a research proposal for enhancing rail car blow-over prediction and mitigation. This proposal was delivered to UP in August 2004.

RAP’s program development team (R. Wagoner and Rose Lundeen) participated in the American Railway Engineering and Maintenance of Way Association (AREMA) annual meeting in September 2004, by bringing the NCAR/RAP exhibit to the meeting. Members of the AMS and commercial weather service providers jointly staffed the rail weather exhibit. It is anticipated that follow-up work will lead to a railroad research and development program.

7. Surface transportation weather outreach and community building

R. Wagoner and B. Mahoney continue to be heavily involved in several national initiatives to raise awareness of the need to improve surface transportation weather services. In FY04, with support from NSF and FHWA, R. Lundeen coordinated the development of a surface transportation weather exhibit that highlights surface transportation research programs at NCAR, Lincoln Laboratory, NOAA Forecast System Laboratory and the Cold Region Research and Engineering Laboratory. RAP staff participated in conferences and meetings including the Transportation Research Board (TRB), Intelligent Transportation Society of America (ITSA), MDSS Stakeholder Meeting, American Railway Engineering and Maintenance of Way Association (AREMA), and AMS Annual Meeting. B. Mahoney was invited to speak at several State DOT annual meetings discussing new weather technologies for road weather decision support. Bill was also appointed by the ITSA Weather Information Applications Special Interest Group to lead a project to develop a national road weather research plan for the Intelligent Transportation Society. Other activities include providing support to the FHWA and establishing a TRB Surface Transportation Weather Committee.

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RAP Achievements