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ESIG 2004 Achievements

Protection of Life and Property

Climate Variability and Uncertainty in Flood Hazard Planning

Flood risk estimates are particularly uncertain in mountainous areas of the western United States, because of sparse data and highly variable precipitation. Yet, the design of floodplain maps, flood-control structures, storm drainage systems, and bridges depends on these estimates. This project aims to facilitate improvement in estimates of local risks of extreme warm season rainfall in Colorado and other Rocky Mountain states. Goals of the project are (1) to learn how scientific information and uncertainty are incorporated into flood-related decisionmaking and regulation, and (2) to develop improved methods of estimating precipitation frequencies through meteorological analysis and the use of extreme value statistics. In FY04, the research team included Mary Downton, Rebecca Morss, Olga Wilhelmi, and Melissa Crandall (all of ESIG), Uli Schneider and Doug Nychka (GSP), and Eve Gruntfest (University of Colorado-Colorado Springs). Papers are being prepared on how decisionmakers deal with uncertainty in flood risk information, and case studies in which disagreement among scientists led to dilemmas for decisionmakers. The study has identified inadequancies in the precipitation frequency information available for flood management in Colorado, leading to an ongoing investigation using methods of extreme value statistics.

Development of a Climate/Human Health Program

As a major component of the Assessment Initiative, the development of the Climate and Human Health module continued during FY04. Linda Mearns and Jonathan Patz ( Johns Hopkins University ) invited health scientists and students to an intensive series of lectures and hands-on computer labs, which helped them learn more about the conceptual and methodological challenges for defining the possible effects of climate change on health. Top NCAR climatologists and statisticians, along with health scientists from the CDC (US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), Johns Hopkins University , and other institutions around the globe presented case studies (e.g., heat mortality and vector-borne diseases). Statistical methods, such as time-series analysis and extreme value theory, demonstrated ways to analyze climate data. Modelers and risk assessment experts taught integrated modeling and strategies to communicate scientific findings and uncertainties. This event was the first step in a long-term program integrating climate and health recommended by the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council. Such a program is necessary to successfully tackle research questions in climate-society-health interactions. The six-day-long joint ESIG/ASP Summer Colloquium brought together these experts in order to begin this component of the Assessment Initiative. More information about the Colloquium is available on the website at www.asp.ucar.edu/colloquium/2004/CH

Early Warning Systems

Michael Glantz received funds from NSF and NCAR to convene a workshop on Usable Science VIII: Early Warning Systems Do's and Don'ts. An early warning system is made up of several components: the formulation of the warning, the issuance of the warning, and the reception of and response to the warning -- each of which has to be considered in the evaluation of an early warning system. A weakness in any part of the process can render the early warning system ineffective, and a system that does not warn effectively will not be taken seriously. The workshop was co-sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Administration and the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, and held in Shanghai, China, in mid-October 2003. Thirty-two participants from 12 different countries (Australia, Brazil, China, India, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Russia, Spain, Switzerland, the UK, and the US) and from several different disciplines and funding agencies gathered to examine ways to improve early warning systems, including types of early warning systems in theory and practice, sustainable development, politics, capacity building for early warning, and much more. A comprehensive workshop report is available on the website in both hard copy and on line at www.isse.ucar.edu/warning

Glantz also held a workshop on El Niño Early Warning for Sustainable Development in Pacific Rim Countries and Islands in September 2004 in the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador. Michael Glantz (ESIG) and Jose Luis Santos of CIIFEN (Centro Internacional para la Investigación de El Niño) in Guayaquil, Ecuador, gathered 34 participants from 12 countries (Australia, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Germany, Mexico, United Kingdom, United States, and Uruguay) in an attempt to regionalize the focus on a specific early warning activity for ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). Participants represented many disciplines, including marine biology, fisheries, oceanography, agriculture, communications, political science, economics, meteorology, anthropology, forestry, philosophy, and history. This activity was a follow-up to the workshop held in October 2003 in Shanghai, China. A workshop report is in preparation and will be available on the website in FY05 at www.isse.ucar.edu/galapagos

Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts to the Insurance Industry

In FY04, Richard Katz, in collaboration with Matt Coleman (SOARS protégé and graduate student at Pennsylvania State University ), began a project on the optimal use and economic value of seasonal hurricane forecasts to the insurance and re-insurance industries. These forecasts of hurricane activity are based largely on the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) state. Preliminary work included the development of a simulation model of hurricane damage.

Extreme Weather and Climate Events

Many NCAR divisions are involved in research aspects of extreme weather and climate events. ESIG plays a significant role in modeling and statistical analysis of climate extremes. The following three projects are part of the Assessment Initiative. This work is important in order to understand and reduce societal vulnerability and impacts, as well as to link the social sciences to new discoveries in physical meteorology and climate in order to enhance protection of life and property.

Extremes Toolkit

This project is another activity within the Assessment Initiative. The “extremes toolkit” is web-based, open source software that allows for the statistical analysis of weather and climate extremes and their impacts, available at www.isse.ucar.edu/extremevalues/evtk.html . It includes a tutorial and graphical user interface designed to be accessible to non-statisticians in fields such as climate and climate impacts. During FY04, Eric Gilleland (RAP/GSP) and Rick Katz made minor modifications to the software, and the tutorial was extensively revised.

Extreme Events in Climate Models

As another activity within the Assessment Initiative, Claudia Tebaldi, in collaboration with Doug Nychka and Jerry Meehl (both of CGD) continued an analysis of the frequency and intensity of various extreme events that have particular relevance to climate impacts in regional and global climate models. Extreme value theory is being used in these analysis, along with undertaking a detailed examination of the spatial scaling characteristics of extremes in climate models.

Managing Wildland Fire Risks

The vulnerability of individual property, as well as whole communities, to wildland fire events is the product of a large number of autonomous (but mutually interdependent) decisions made over time by individuals whose interests and objectives may conflict. This project, headed by Kathleen Miller and Robert Harriss, modeled the interconnections between land use and management decisions made by adjacent property owners and local government entities. The significance of such interconnections was assessed by conducting a local case study of wildfire risk mitigation activities, focusing on analyzing the effects of uncertainty and information in such situations. This research contributes to the development of policy alternatives, decision support tools, and risk communication methods to improve societal management of wildland fire risks. This project entails major collaboration with the Wildland Fire Strategic Initiative, and also some with the Water Cycle Strategic Initiative.

Statistics of Extremes: Ecological Disturbances

In collaboration with Grace Brush (Johns Hopkins University) and Marc Parlange (Johns Hopkins University and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), Richard Katz completed a project on using the statistics of extremes to model ecological disturbances. Extreme value theory is applied to time series of sediment rates, attempting to identify both the influence of hydrological events (e.g., heavy rainfall) and human activities (e.g., land use). A review paper has been accepted and will appear in FY05 as a special feature on the statistics of rarity in the journal Ecology.

Urban Transportation and the Environment

China has the world's fastest-growing automobile market. A robust economy and soaring demand are fueling the phenomenon in this increasingly urbanized country. Chinese cities are facing acute envirnomental challenges, as well as experiencing changes in land use, economic, socio-demographic, and institutional development. Shui Bin, with Robert Harriss, Al Cooper (ASP), and Jiang Kejun (Energy Research Institute, Beijing, China) began a study in FY04 that focuses on Chinese medium- and small-sized cities to explore the current challenges and opportunities in urban transportation development. The study will introduce decisionmaking tools to regional decisionmakers, as well as stimulate a wide-ranging discussion about sustainable transportation at the regional level. This study will continue during FY05, and a paper will be submitted with the study's results upon its completion.

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Education and Outreach | Fundamental Research | Enhancing Productivity | Protection of Life and Property